Chart of the Day: A Simple Trend Following Strategy

The S&P 500 just closed below its 10-month moving average — here's what it means.  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 

Wednesday, April 1, 2026 A Simple Trend Following Strategy   The best part of month-end is a fresh batch of monthly charts.   We only run this review once the candlesticks are complete — and nothing in my process is more valuable.   This process forces us to take a step back and gives us no choice but to identify the direction of the primary trends, skip daily noise, and focus on what really matters.   So today, I want to bring you one of the most old school trend-following strategies JC taught me many years ago.   It's very simple.    You take a 10-month moving average of the S&P 500, and at the end of each month, if the price closes above it, you own stocks. If it closes below, you reduce risk, or simply step aside.     That's it.   We're not trying to catch tops or bottoms here. This is about identifying the trend.   And right now, the message is clear.   The S&P just closed below this line for the first time since April last year.   Historically, returns tend to struggle when we're below this line, and favor when we're above it. Grant ran the numbers to back this up — go take a look.   As long as we're below this level, conditions are likely to remain messy.   For the bulls, it's simple: they need to reclaim it on a monthly closing basis. That's when the signal triggers.   Steve and I will discuss this in more detail and go through 100+ charts tonight in our Monthly Conference Call with ASC Premium members.   If you want to join us, you can sign up risk-free today.   Let me know what you think about this note—shoot me an email, I'd love to hear your thoughts!   Stay sharp 😉   Alfonso De Pablos, CMT Director of Research, All Star Charts   Alfonso De Pablos, CMT | Director of Research, All Star Charts All Star Charts emails are a financial publication of general circulation and only offers impersonal advice, not tailored to individual needs of a specific client or group. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of All Star Charts or its affiliates (collectively, "All Star Charts") and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Unless specifically indicated, this message is not an official confirmation of any transaction. The contents of any email communications to or from All Star Charts may be monitored or reviewed at All Star Charts's discretion. All Star Charts accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage arising in any way from the use of this transmission and any attachments; it is the responsibility of the recipient to ensure that they are virus free. If you reply to this email, please note that we are a public investor and do not want any material non-public information. We do not agree to keep confidential any information you provide and do not agree to any restrictions on our trading activity, except pursuant to a written confidentiality agreement executed by All Star Charts. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can manage your preferences here unsubscribe. © 2026 All Star Charts 624 Broadway, Suite 405 San Diego, CA 92101 All Star Charts 624 Broadway Suite 405 San Diego, CA 92101