That’s the rule people forget. And it’s the one that matters most right now.
This Isn’t Supposed to Be Clean
The situation in Iran feels confusing because people are trying to force it into a clean narrative. One day it’s escalation, the next day it’s talk of peace, and then suddenly we’re right back to tension again. It feels inconsistent, almost random.
But that’s only true if you think this is supposed to resolve quickly.
It’s not.
This region has been fought over for generations. In the 1800s, Britain was battling Persia over territory and influence. Moving into the early 1900s, Russia and Britain applied pressure from both sides, never fully taking control because the other power would step in. In 1907, they divided the country into spheres of influence, reducing autonomy without ever formally colonizing it. In 1941, Britain and the Soviets invaded and occupied Iran.
In 1953, Western powers intervened again through a coup that reshaped the government.
Different actors, different decades, same underlying dynamic.
Pressure, conflict, and control.
And through all of it, Iran was never fully absorbed. It remained independent, not because the pressure wasn’t there, but because the fight never truly ends.
It just evolves.
What looks like peace is often just a pause. A regrouping. A shift in leverage before the next move.
Markets Work the Same Way
This is where it starts to matter for us.
Markets behave in a very similar way. People are always trying to call the end of a move, trying to identify the exact moment a trend is over. They want resolution. They want clarity.
But trends don’t operate on your timeline.
They follow the same rule:
They go on as long as they have to.
Look at Energy
Pull up the XLE chart and remove the noise. If you showed it to someone with no bias and asked whether it’s trending higher or lower, they’d answer correctly without hesitation.
It’s an uptrend.
Since breaking above that 50.50 level, the structure changed. That was the line of polarity. Supply was absorbed, and the market transitioned into a new phase. From there, price moved higher in a steady, persistent way.
