While energy, uranium, and even parts of the grains complex have been quietly working higher, there's one corner of the commodity market that's been an absolute train wreck: the softs.
Since peaking in early 2025, our Gold Rush Soft Commodity Index, an equal-weight basket of Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar, has completely unraveled.
After a powerful multi-year advance that carried price all the way back to retest the 2011 highs, the group rolled over hard.
What followed has been nearly a vertical move lower.
From peak to trough, the index has cratered by almost 40% and is now trading at the lowest levels since 2023. |
Technically, the damage is clear. That retest of the 2011 peak marked a major inflection point.
The failed breakout attempt turned into a decisive rollover, and momentum accelerated to the downside.
The primary trend is down, and the structure reflects that.
But commodities, especially the softs, don't decline in an orderly fashion.
They unwind violently.
They overshoot.
They stretch to extremes.
And when they get stretched far enough, they tend to mean-revert just as aggressively.
So while we're not arguing that soft commodities are entering a new secular bull market, we do think this group has reached a level where a tactical bounce is worth stalking. |
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| Jason Perz | ASC Gold Rush | Save The Bees |
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