Trend Signal Now: The Weekly Beat 📈

Sunday, February 15, 2026

Earnings are the heartbeat of the market, and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks.

With each report, we get new information on corporate health, investor sentiment, and where money is rotating.

In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week: the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets.

Then we shift our focus to the week ahead, breaking down the technicals and fundamentals.

Whether it's mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, we've got you covered on what traders need to know right now.

What happened last week 👇

Monday:
- Following a big double beat, Biogen $BIIB had its best earnings reaction since 2019. While the company's flagship product growth is slowing, its new products are performing very well. For example, Leqembi (their Alzheimer's therapy) grew sales by 140% year-over-year.
- After posting mixed headline results, Molina Healthcare $MOH suffered its worst earnings reaction ever and closed at the lowest level since 2020. EPS for 2025 came in at $11.03 versus the initial guidance of $24.50, a 55% miss. The management team also cut its forward earnings guidance.

Tuesday:
- Apollo Global Management $APO beat the headline expectations and had its third consecutive positive earnings reaction. Total assets under management grew 25% year-over-year to $938B, leading to a 23% increase in fee-related earnings over the same period.
- Despite beating top- and bottom-line expectations, Waters $WAT fell 13.9% for its worst earnings reaction since 2003. The sell-off was mostly attributed to the management team's weak forward guidance.

Wednesday:
- Following a mixed earnings report, Marriott $MAR had its best earnings reaction since 2010 and closed at a fresh all-time high. The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program grew by 43M members to nearly 271M, with new collaborations and recognition as the best hotel loyalty program.
- In reaction to a mixed earnings report, S&P Global $SPGI suffered its worst earnings reaction of the 21st century and closed at a new multi-year low. While the management team's forward guidance was pretty solid, the ratings guidance was underwhelming.

Thursday:
- Despite a top- and bottom-line miss, Generac $GNRC rallied nearly 18% and closed at the highest level since 2022. Shareholders have now been rewarded for 6 of the last 7 earnings reports.
- While GNRC had a sweet miss/miss/pop, Assurant $AIZ had a nasty beat/beat/drop after the management team issued weak forward guidance.

Friday:
- Like GNRC the day before, Equinox $EQIX rallied after posting a double miss. Gross bookings reached a new all-time high, growing 42% year-over-year. In addition, the management team issued strong forward guidance across the board.
- Following a big double beat, Cisco Systems $CSCO fell over 12% for its worst earnings reaction since Q2 2022. The company's margins are getting squeezed, and the management team expects this to continue.

What's happening next week 👇

Next week will be action-packed again, with our attention focused on the consumer and industrial bellwethers Walmart $WMT and Deere $DE.

We'll also be watching:

The precious metals miners Newmont $NEM, Coeur Mining $CDE, Pan American Silver $PAAS, and more.
The largest cybersecurity stock, Palo Alto Networks $PANW.
Dirty energy stocks Devon Energy $DVN, Energy Transfer $ET, Transocean $RIG, and more.
The recent S&P 500 addition Carvana $CVNA.
And more!

There will be plenty of earnings reactions to unpack next week in the Daily Beat. Stay tuned...

Now, let's talk about the reports that are front and center for us next week.

Walmart $WMT reports Thursday before the market opens, and the Street is looking for revenues of $190.49B and earnings per share of $0.73.

Walmart has been in a powerful primary uptrend for years. After carving out a textbook accumulation pattern for most of 2025, the stock broke out in Q4 and has been ripping to fresh all-time highs ever since.

It just closed the week at a new high heading into earnings.

That tells you everything you need to know about expectations. The market is already pricing in strength.

Technically, this is a leader. It's acting like a leader. And in this tape, leadership matters.

When a stock is breaking out to new highs ahead of earnings, you have to respect the possibility of a "sell-the-news" reaction.

But the earnings scorecard suggests Walmart is capable of clearing the high expectations.

Last quarter, Walmart snapped a three-quarter streak of negative earnings reactions with a +6.46% move and positive post-earnings drift.

The company almost always beats headline expectations.

Revenue and EPS growth have been steady and consistent, typically in the low- to mid-single digits on the top line, with occasional double-digit bottom-line growth.

The fundamentals are solid, and the technicals are confirming it.

As long as management delivers and avoids any negative surprises, we would not be surprised to see another positive reaction and continuation of this breakout.

But with the price at all-time highs, any disappointment could trigger a sharp shakeout. That's the risk when expectations are stretched.

Deere $DE also reports Thursday before the open, with expectations for $7.59B in revenue and $2.02 in earnings per share.

Like Walmart, Deere is pressing to new all-time highs.

But the setup is different.

Walmart has been trending for years. Deere, on the other hand, has gone essentially nowhere since 2021. For years, it has been locked in a prolonged sideways churn.

This base is now serving as a launchpad for a brand-new primary uptrend in DE.

However, the scorecard adds a layer of complexity.

Deere has been punished for two consecutive earnings reports.

Since early 2024, the company has posted negative year-over-year revenue and EPS growth. That's not the type of fundamental momentum you typically associate with fresh all-time highs.

That said, there are signs of stabilization.

Last quarter, revenue returned to growth.

We also saw positive pre- and post-earnings drift, suggesting that earnings sentiment may be turning.

So we have a divergence: The technicals are fantastic, but the fundamentals are not.

If DE can show sustained top-line growth and demonstrate that it's flowing through to earnings, this breakout could gain serious traction.

But if growth falters again, the stock may need more time to digest this move.

Next week's report will go a long way toward resolving that tension.

That's it for this week. We hope you have a good Presidents' Day weekend!

-The Beat Team

Editor's note: Walmart reports Thursday morning, and when Walmart speaks, retail listens.

This could kick off AI's "prove it" year for consumer stocks.

Join Jeff Macke LIVE on Thursday, February 19, at 4 pm ET to learn why "boring" brands like pizza chains, discount retailers, and coffee shops have quietly produced 10x–90x returns in previous tech cycles.

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STAY HUNGRY. STAY FOOLISH

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