Trend Signal Now: Tariffs Slam Discretionary

Monday, February 23, 2026

"Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it" isn't just something old people like to say. Already in the middle of a tough year, consumer discretionary stocks have been rocked since moments after the Supreme Court shot down President Trump's tariffs on Friday.

In part, the reaction was a function of a weak overall tape, as every sell-off tends to find a reason. Tariffs have been haunting consumer names, particularly in the discretionary space for over a year and markets famously "hate uncertainty". The President's predictable vow to fight the court's ruling with a 10% global tariff he then raised by 50% over the weekend, is just the type of thing that inspires investors to take some more off the table, which they have done all day today.

With earnings season from Home Depot, Lowe's and TJX this week, we should have more clarity on the actual consumer impact soon. Until then, this is a "safety first" type of tape.

Jeff Macke | The Macke Portfolio

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