Wednesday, January 28, 2026 |
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Welcome to The Strazza Letter, a free note with market insights from me, All Star Charts Chief Market Strategist Steve Strazza. |
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Global risk assets had a banner year in 2025. And while it doesn't make the headlines much, the falling dollar was the main catalyst for this bullish action. The US Dollar Index kicked off 2026 in the red, logging one of its sharpest weekly declines of the past year. This week saw some follow-through, with the DXY pushing on fresh four-year lows. |
The DXY has been stuck in a messy range for about a year following a historic slide in the first half of 2025.
In that window, the weak dollar regime took hold across assets, EM and developed ex-US equities, metals, and other inflation-sensitive real assets, all confirming what the DXY was signaling.
These have been some of the best themes of the cycle. And the thing about dollar cycles, bullish or bearish, is they typically last longer than a couple of years.
So if you're betting that this is the end of the Dollar's weakness, then you're betting this would be one of the shortest bear markets for the greenback. Or maybe, that it never even started.
Here's the fat pitch: look at ex-US stocks versus US stocks overlaid with DXY. They're mirror images. When the Dollar weakens, the US typically underperforms the rest of the world.
That's the structural shift we're trying to capture. Not a quick pop, but a 5–15 year run. Right now, the window of opportunity is opening. |
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xThe Dollar is working on breaking down from an uptrend that is nearly twenty years in the making.
Meanwhile, the ratio of ex-US vs US stocks has already broken out above its own multi-decade downtrend line.
In cyclical terms, this looks like the start, not the end.
And when we zoom in, our levels remain unchanged—and the market keeps validating them. |
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The key support shelf lies at 96. It's been solid support for DXY for nearly a year, but it looks more fragile by the day.
A break below could be the confirmation we need in order to press the gas even more on our short-dollar trades.
Conversely, if the dollar rips through 100-101, it's risk-off for this trade. A scenario that seems more unlikely by the day.
Thanks for reading.
As always, let us know what you think. We love hearing from you. |
Earnings Season Playbook — Live Tomorrow at 2 PM ET I'm going live tomorrow at 2 PM ET to unveil my latest Beat Report research and show you exactly how to trade earnings season like a pro. Reserve your spot and don't miss it! |
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Steve Strazza | Chief Market Strategist, All Star Charts |
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