Trend Signal Now: What if we’ve been in year one… not late-cycle?

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

When I look at insider activity, I'm always asking two questions:

Where are we in the cycle?
Is this buying aligned with the primary trend… or fighting it?

That's why I pay attention when Mike Hurley speaks.

Hurley's one of JC and Strazza's biggest influences on breadth and cycle work. He wrote a chapter in the CMT textbook. He won a Lipper Award in 2008 running a long/short fund up in a brutal year.

In a new session, JC and Strazza brought him on to settle a key debate:

Are we in year one of a new bull market…
or the tired, late stages of the old one?

Inside the replay, you'll see:

How Hurley uses NYSE % above 200-day and a 40% line in the sand to define bull vs bear regimes
Why he believes the Q1–April washout acted as a true reset, not just "noise"
What would have to happen in price and breadth to flip him back to defense
How his "shotgun chart" of every cycle since 1932 maps out a rough path toward S&P 9,000–10,000

For anyone tracking insider behavior, the difference between late-cycle and early-cycle is huge.

See the full conversation

Alfonso Depablos, CMT | Director of Research, All Star Charts

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