Trend Signal Now: The Daily Beat

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Earnings season is the heartbeat of the market - and every day brings fresh signals about where money is flowing.

With each report, we learn not just how companies are performing, but how investors are reacting.

In the Daily Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings moves from the prior session - the winners, the losers, and the reactions that reveal what really matters to the market right now.

Whether it's a bellwether with broad economic implications or a niche name making waves, we cut through the noise to focus on the setups that matter most.

Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500 👇

*Click the image to enlarge it

The best earnings reaction came from Prologis $PLD, which is the world's largest owner of logistics and warehouse real estate. The company reported a double beat, resulting in a +3.01 reaction score for shareholders.

The company posted revenues of $2.05B, exceeding the expected $2.03B, and earnings per share were $0.82, above the expected $0.67.

At the bottom of the list was the $133B provider of auto, home, and commercial insurance, Progressive $PGR. They missed expectations across the board, sparking an ugly -4.01 reaction score.

They reported revenues of $21.38B, compared to the expected $21.80B, and earnings per share of $3.95, below the expected $4.99.

Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals 👇

PLD had its best earnings reaction of the 21st century 🔥

Prologis had a +6.3% post-earnings reaction, and here's what happened:

During the quarter, the company leased a record 62 million square feet, bringing the portfolio occupancy up to a staggering 95.3%.
After 42 years at the helm, this was the final earnings call for the legendary co-founder and CEO, Hamid Moghadam. He will be transitioning to Executive Chairman, and Dan Letter (currently President of Prologis) will replace him as CEO.
Everything about this report was incredible, but to put the cherry on top, the management team boosted its forward guidance.

This was an all-around brilliant performance from the second-largest component of the S&P Real Estate sector $XLRE, and the market rewarded the shareholders in a significant way for it. It has been decades since this stock has been rewarded like this for an earnings event.

Traditionally, they have been focused on distribution centers for retailers, manufacturers, and transportation companies. However, they're beginning to pivot aggressively into data centers as the AI revolution demands more of them.

While data centers are still a relatively small part of their overall business, we expect the new CEO to make a variety of new deals in the not-too-distant future.

The market loves everything this company is doing, which is why the stock is one of the largest and strongest in its sector.

After years of churning sideways, we believe PLD is beginning to turn the corner and will soon enter a brand-new primary uptrend. We're keeping an eye on 138 to confirm this potential change in trend.

PGR suffered its worst earnings reaction in 10 quarters 🐻

Progressive had a -5.8% post-earnings reaction, and here's what happened:

Net premiums earned and net income increased year-over-year by 14% and 12%, respectively.
The combined ratio (a key performance indicator for insurance companies) has increased slightly year-over-year, indicating a marginal decrease in profitability.
This company reports earnings in an unorthodox way. They won't publish their 10-Q or host a conference call until November 4.

By missing headline expectations across the board, the stock decisively resolved a textbook distribution pattern, closing at a new 52-week low.

The last time the company reported a double miss was ten quarters ago, when the price cratered over 13% in a single session.

However, the last time this happened, the sell-off didn't stick. The price immediately reversed and rallied 160% in 420 trading sessions.

While something similar could happen again, we doubt it'll be that easy this time around. Until proven otherwise, the sellers are in complete control of the primary trend.

So long as PGR holds below 236, the path of least resistance is likely to remain lower for the foreseeable future.

Don't forget to feed the ducks

-The Beat Team

Editor's Note: Strazza has been on fire this month - racking up some of the best trades of the year. Tomorrow at 9:45 AM ET, he's going LIVE on The Open Bar to break down his process and reveal what's working right now.

👉 Don't miss it

STAY HUNGRY. STAY FOOLISH

We out here -->

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Trend Signal Now

The Daily Beat - October 16, 2025