Trend Signal Now: The Weekly Beat

Sunday, June 22, 2025

As we wrap up the first quarter earnings season, I want to make sure everyone is receiving our new fusion research.

We've spent the past few years compiling and analyzing a proprietary set of earnings sentiment data.

It's been a bit of a passion project for Sam and I, and we couldn't be more excited to finally share our work.

We've been doing this every quarter, tracking industry trends, and pinpointing stocks with the top earnings stories… and more importantly, the top earnings reactions.

It's all about the reaction at the end of the day. It wasn't a good report unless the market agrees, right?

So we're not just looking for stocks that beat earnings, we're looking for the ones that go up the most when they do. Companies that do this consistently end up being the best stocks for the long run.

We built the Beat Report around this simple fundamental idea in order to help us find them.

We're writing about earnings and the way stocks react to them every day in the Daily Beat. Sign up and get the ultimate earnings cheat sheet delivered straight to your inbox every morning.

Here's a look at our weekend summary. This is everything you need to know about last week's earnings 👇

Earnings Spotlight: One Semi to Watch ☝️

Welcome to The Weekly Beat.

As we near the end of this earnings season, there's still plenty of action around here.

Last week, we saw a double beat from a software giant, which resulted in a massive selloff.

We also heard from one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, and it wasn't good.

And with several prominent names sitting at critical levels, the stakes are only getting higher.

In this week's recap, we cover the key reactions from last week and preview the setups we're focused on heading into next week.

What happened last week 👇

Monday:

- Adobe $ADBE reported a double beat and fell 5.3% on the news. The bears continued selling as the price closed the week at a new multi-week low.

- In addition, the stock is below the VWAP anchored to the key pivot low on April 7, 2025.

Tuesday:

- No earnings reactions in the S&P 500, but we spotlighted a major policy headline that just rocked the solar industry.

- Amid the wreckage, one name is showing tremendous relative strength.

Wednesday:

- Jabil $JBL reported a double beat and rallied 8.9%. This was the stock's 4th consecutive positive earnings reaction.

- Lennar $LEN reported mixed results and was punished for it. The stock fell 4.5%, marking the 7th consecutive negative earnings reaction.

Thursday:

- Markets were closed for the U.S. federal holiday, Juneteenth.

Friday:

- No earnings reactions in the S&P 500, but we dove into what's happening with Regional Banks right now.

- One of our favorites is on the cusp of resolving a massive base.

What's happening next week 👇

After Tuesday's closing bell, we'll hear from the $54B transportation behemoth, FedEx $FDX.

They have been punished for 3 consecutive earnings reports, and we'll be watching closely to see if the bulls can snap the losing streak.

After Thursday's closing bell, we'll hear from athletic apparel giant, Nike $NKE.

This company has been one of the biggest disasters in the S&P 500 in recent years. The market has punished shareholders for 9 of the last 12 earnings reports.

We'll also hear from Jefferies Financial $JEF, Paychex $PAYX, Carnival $CCL, and others.

There will be a lot to unpack here at The Beat Report.

We're most looking forward to the Micron $MU earnings report after Wednesday's close, and here's why.

The $138B semiconductor stock is trading at its highest level since this time last year.

The MU setup ahead of Wednesday's earnings event 👇

The market expects Micron to report $8.85B in revenues and $1.59 in earnings per share.

This company sits at the heart of one of the most important trends in tech: memory and storage.

They're one of the few companies globally that manufacture DRAM and NAND chips, essential building blocks for everything from smartphones and PCs to cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

While GPU makers like Nvidia have dominated the AI narrative, Micron is a critical player behind the scenes.

AI workloads require massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory, and demand for next-gen HBM products is expected to surge.

Management has repeatedly called out 2025 and 2026 as inflection years, driven by tight supply, AI-driven demand, and a more disciplined pricing environment.

Yet despite that tailwind, the stock has been punished for two straight earnings reports, suggesting the bar is high and investors are demanding more than long-term promises... they want near-term execution.

The big question now: will this be the quarter where investors start rewarding the progress again?

We'll find out during the Wednesday night conference call and in Thursday's market reaction.

Semiconductors are at a key level of interest 👇

As you can see, the Semiconductor ETF $SMH has been carving out a base for over a year.

Since bottoming on April 7, the price has rallied over 50% in 50 trading sessions. Now, it's flirting with a massive breakout.

Micron is the 5th-largest holding, so rallying after Wednesday's earnings event could spark a fresh leg higher in the industry ETF.

New all-time highs in SMH would be incredibly bullish for the broader market.

Do you think it will happen?

Thank you for reading.

The Beat Report Team

Steve Strazza | Chief Market Strategist, All Star Charts

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