I'm going out for drinks tonight with a good friend who owns a real estate agency in Key West.
We're going to talk about home prices, inventory levels, and mortgage rates… and I can't wait.
The truth is, I've been thinking about the housing market a lot lately. I'm really into it.
Rose and I have decided to give the mainland a shot and are moving up to the Naples area this week. We'll miss Key West, but we are excited about this new chapter in our lives.
We took our time searching for a place over the past year or so. In the process, I've spent countless hours on Zillow $Z and have looked at a variety of South Florida homebuilder communities— from Lennar $LEN to Taylor Morrison $TMHC and Pulte Homes $PHM.
I've dealt with Rocket Companies $RKT, with whom I have my first mortgage.
And this past week, it's been all about shopping for furniture on sites like Wayfair $W.
Don't even get me started about Home Depot $HD. I need a break from that place.
All of these stocks fall into the housing category, and I think they are all buys right now.
Housing is one of the most interest rate-sensitive groups in the entire market, so my view has everything to do with bonds.
The list of intermarket evidence supporting lower rates continues to grow by the day.
I wrote about the new highs for speculative growth stocks a few days ago. I don't think that trend reversal sticks without lower rates. So, as long as it does— and for now it is, it tells me the market is expecting rates to fall.
Other rate-sensitive groups like banks and biotechs are trending well, too. JP Morgan is pressing on fresh record highs, and biotechs are the only thing working in health care these days. I believe the price action in these areas suggests lower rates are coming.
And how about the dollar?
I'm in the camp that this is a massive top in DXY, and dollars are going lower. Up until just recently, rates were moving in lock-step with the dollar. I think that relationship is about to reassert itself.
