Trend Signal Now: Bull or Bear. Why it Matters?

Monday, March 10, 2025

We're only in the market to make money. Let's not forget that.

We're not journalists who have to tell stories about things that may or may not be happening.

We're not Economists trying to identify the next recession.

We don't care about your stories, and we care even less about your economy. As far as I'm concerned, recessions are a choice for a lot of people.

I try to make sure that I fall in that category.

One way we do that is to weigh all the evidence and decide if this is a bull market or a bear market.

And the reason why this is important is for one simple reason: To decide how we want to be spending our time.

Today is Monday. What should I be doing today? That's the question I want to answer.

In other words, should I be spending my time looking for stocks to buy, or should I be spending my time looking for stocks to sell?

That's really what this is all about. You can see exactly what we've been doing and how we're approaching markets here.

But moving forward, what are some of the signs we're looking for that would suggest that a more cautious approach to markets is better. What does a bear market look like?

I laid out two big themes I'm thinking about right now here.

But in addition to that, I want to nail down something we know for certain: During bear markets, or any kind of correction, the prices of stocks need to fall.

That's just a fact. There's no other way around it.

So if we know that to be true, then we want to allocate some of our time counting how many stocks are actually falling in price.

After some of the selling pressure last week in U.S. stocks, we can see that there were actually fewer stocks on the NYSE hitting new 3-month lows than there were over the past few months.

And when you look shorter-term, you'll notice the same thing.

Here are the list of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 1-month lows. Again, fewer stocks did that last week than at prior spikes over the past few months:

This can change of course. We could absolutely see an expansion in stocks hitting new lows.

That's the great thing about the market. I don't actually know what the market is going to do next. And contrary to popular belief, no one else does either.

In fact, deep down inside, I'm actually a permabear. Despite the fact that we've been all over this bull market over the past several years, the best thing that could happen to me and my family is a massive market crash that wipes most investors out.

That would give us a great opportunity to buy stocks cheap, likely get some real estate at a discount, and add a ton to our children's college funds.

I think about this sort of thing all the time. But it's important to understand that I don't have any control over it. I don't get a vote.

All I can do is play the cards that we're dealt, and do the best I can to continue to accumulate wealth to be able to provide a better life for my family.

What I do is the only thing I can control.

And over the years, I've learned that traders and investors all over the world appreciate my perspective and the color we bring to the table.

I honestly do not care if Gold goes to 5000 or 500. Bitcoin can go to a million, or zero. It doesn't matter to me at all.

I'm too old to care.

I just want to make money from the whole thing.

So if you're like me, and that's your goal, then you can check out our Premium Research and see for yourself why so many investors, both professionals and DIY Traders come to us, over so many other options they have to choose from.

We're really proud of the work we do around here, and I'm not afraid to share that.

Our unbiased approach to markets is refreshing for most people.

You can join today RISK FREE and get access to our research and all the trade ideas in real time.

See you in there!

JC Parets, CMT | Founder, All Star Charts

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