This morning is just a friendly reminder to turn off the TV.
There's nothing on there to help you. It's not their job to help you make better and more informed investing decisions.
In fact, it's quite the opposite. Their only job is to convince you that you need to come back and keep watching.
That's it. That's literally their only job.
Some people are too weak to overcome their tricks, and instead fall for the old trap of, "I need to watch so I can stay informed".
The implications, however, are NOT that you'll be more informed. In fact, you're actually going to be a lot more misinformed.
Again, their job is NOT to inform you, or even to help you. That's never been their job, not matter how much they pretend that it is.
So don't fall for the trap of traditional media. If they've proven anything over the years, it's that they cannot be trusted.
Turn it off. And put on some music instead.
I'll let you know when I'm on tv, and you can turn it on for a few minutes. Or better yet, I'll just send you the video replay.
But everything you need to know you'll see right here first.
Now, with that in mind, I'd like to address the latest "crisis" that is supposedly upon the stock market.
I say crisis somewhat tongue-in-cheek, because well, isn't it always a crisis? lol
Tech stocks are down this morning, especially the mega-caps. This group has been a massive underperformer during the back half of last year.
The question is whether this group continues its underperformance, or if we see rotation back into them?
So far, it's the other stocks that continue to drive this market to new all-time highs: Financials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Communications, and now Healthcare and Materials are starting to come around.
As a reminder, the S&P500 Friday had it's highest weekly close in history.
So did the German DAX.
The Euro STOXX 50, which is effectively the Dow of Europe, closed at new mulit-decade highs.
Based on the panic you're seeing in social media, you'd think global markets were crashing.
They are not, at least not yet.
In fact, both US interest rates and the US dollar are down this morning, which I believe is a bullish tailwind for equities, not a headwind.
Crude Oil is basically flat. So are Copper Futures.
Chinese stocks are up 1-2% at the index level.
And the Dow Jones Industrial Avg is down less than 1%.
Keep in mind that every big market correction in history has started with a little one. But not every little market correction turns into a big one. In fact, they almost never do.
Sentiment is still incredibly pessimistic, especially considering that S&Ps are hitting all-time highs.
I'm open-minded to a major trend change. But the weight-of-the-evidence continues to suggest that we want to spend our time looking for stocks to buy, not looking for stocks to sell.
I like Chinese stocks in 2025, and this morning's relative strength is further evidence that we're on the right track.
I'll chime in later today as more data comes in.
But in the meantime, turn the TV off. Block the permabears on twitter that are telling everyone this is their moment lol.
If you recall, the yen carry unwind in August was also their moment - their revenge on the market when they'll finally be proven right. It was a banking crisis before that, if you recall.
None of that turned out to be the beginning of anything. These were just higher lows and higher highs in the middle of a bull market.
My suspicion is that this will be the same.
- JC
PS - I don't just mean this about the current environment. I believe the advantages are for every market. Less TV, more music. Fewer articles, more books. Less screen time, more walks.
It's just science.
