This is a stock that alone represents 17.5% of the entire Consumer Discretionary Index - the second largest weighting (behind AMZN).
Meanwhile, Tesla represents 4% of the Nasdaq100 QQQs, 3.3% of the Russell1000 Growth Index (7th largest weighting), 1.8% of the S&P500 (7th largest weighting) and 1.6% of the S&P500 High Beta Index (4th largest weighting).
When you talk about a market bellwether - this is the exact definition of one.
And it's continuing to soar higher, despite the historic gains it just saw last year.
With sentiment as bearish as its gotten, in both what investors are saying and what investors are actually doing, one might wonder what would be the catalyst to unwind all that pessimism and send all the major indexes to new all-time highs again.
For me, it's definitely the U.S. Dollar.
You have the dumb money betting that the Dollar is ready to break out and rip through Q1 - which I believe would add pressure to stocks (so do they apparently).
Then you have the smart money taking the opposite bet, that the Dollar is going to roll over.
We've already been talking about it this week as a major catalyst.
But now we're seeing the U.S. Dollar Index running into the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from its 2022 highs down to the 2023 lows.
This would be a perfectly logical area for the sell-off in the Dollar to begin:
