During this time of the year, I find myself thinking back on the prior 12 months. It's hard not to right?
I wanted to send a short note today reminding everyone to look around. Understand what is happening out there and why it's been happening.
This year more than ever, we are grateful for the permabears, who are so darn good at convincing all those gullible sheep to fight a perfectly good bull market, than it's helped the rest of us make so much more money.
The S&P500 is up 28% this year. The Nasdaq100 is up 30%. This is after the 2023 returns of 26% for the S&P500 and 54% for the Nasdaq100.
They cried and cried about a recession. But all we got was the Nasdaq literally doubling in total value.
These are historic returns that have rarely ever been seen in American history.
But I have to say, if it wasn't for these angry permabears promising you a crisis every day the past 2+ years, our returns would not have been as good.
If Wall Street sell side analysts weren't so bad at their jobs, these gains would likely not be anywhere near what they've been.
If economists didn't put on blindfolds when walking into their offices, like some sort of creepy fetish, the stock market returns would likely be much different than what we just witnessed.
Think about these clowns promising you the next Black Monday with their very creative macro conspiracy theories...
If these fools weren't so good at convincing even greater fools to listen to them, then we wouldn't all have as much money as we have today.
And to be clear, this is not a knock on anyone. I'm not trying to disparage anyone's life or lifestyle choices. I'm just telling it like it is.
The reason I want to point out their demented behavior, in addition to showing my gratitude, is so we can identify this type of opportunity in the future.
It will come again.
Maybe not as great as the past 2 years have been. But we will certainly have opportunities to squeeze the crap out of the criminally insane once again in the future.
As traders and/or investors, if we're not profiting from these setups, then we're not doing our job.
It's our responsibility to our LPs, or Households, or Family Office, or our own portfolios to profit from the spectacularly irrational behavior we see from the weakest minded humans.
Keep in mind, in a lot of cases, the actions of these legendary charlatans are being driven by conflicting interests.
Wall Street sell side analysts, for example, are mostly just trying to keep their jobs, so they can afford to keep paying for their wife's plastic surgery, and little Timmy's private school and the rest of the lifestyle that your tax dollars have helped subsidize over the years.
The economists are just too blinded by lagging indicators to be able to see what the world is actually doing. They ignore reality to focus their attention on theory. Think about it. It's impossible to see what is right in front of you when your head is so far up your ass. That's just science.
And then of course you have the social media degenerates. These poor souls are just looking for some attention. Maybe their mothers did not give them the love they needed, or perhaps they were picked on as a child, or cut from the high school basketball team. But they are depressed beyond repair, and they express their sadness daily on social media.
They're unhappy and lonely and want you to be too, no matter how dumb they look along the way. Again, their priorities are just different than ours.
Now, it isn't just one of these types of challenged individuals that causes the squeeze. It's the collection of all of them that has created one of the greatest opportunities to profit in the history of financial markets.
The guy promising a crisis every day because of the fed, or the yen, or the bitcoin or whatever made up fairy tale their spewing these days, is not the only fuel driving all of our gains. But they certainly help.
Think of it like compounding interest. A little bit every day from all of the different types of charlatans, is what added up to these epic returns for the rest of us.
And we shouldn't forget about it either, or take it for granted.
That's why I'm reminding everyone today, including myself.
We will look back to this moment in the future.
- You'll see the handful of economists who still have jobs embarrassingly optimistic about the future of the economy.
- You'll notice the sell side analysts on Wall Street all with unusually high upside targets for stocks.
- And of course, the crisis guy who's been wrong about everything for years, will capitulate tell you that stocks will now rally. They'll use something like "melt-up" in their description, which is a classic permabear strategy to justify their lack of understanding about how markets work.
We see it every cycle. There are new versions of these charlatans every time. The names and faces change, but the details are almost exactly the same every single cycle.
When that moment comes, we will look back at how grateful we are today for their creativity and persuasiveness throughout this bull market.
If it wasn't for you idiots, we wouldn't all be as wealthy as we are.
So we are incredibly grateful. And we will not forget it.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all of you.
Go hug a permabear. Tell them JC thanks them for their service.
